Analysis
Nine days to US Poll: Clinton still wins…
Hillary vs Trump
The notion and word which keeps cropping up about this US presidential campaign is: Unprecedented. Republican contender Donald Trump has brought up issues of rigging; corruption; and, lewd sexual talk and actions.
And with time for the campaigns running out, Trump,hasdelivered a symbolic speech at Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, in an attempted imitation of President Abraham Lincoln in 1863. Historically, Lincoln’s speech is recognized as the watershed for race relations and the end of slave trade in America and appeal for the union at the time of civil war. It also marked him out as a consummate orator.
So didTrump hope to galvanize his audience to his campaign, saying: “It’s a contract between Donald J. Trump and you, the American voters, it begins with bringing honesty, accountability and change to Washington, D.C.”
He unveiled a sweeping conservative agenda for his first 100 days; an actual plan for governing: to “drain the swamp” in the nation’s capital and “replace it with a new government by and for the people,” Trump vowed to initiate a series of reforms including congressional term limits, a hiring freeze on federal workers (excepting military, safety and health workers) and a major regulatory change: “For every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated.”
Even then, most of the pollsters show Democrat Hillary Clinton beatingTrump, by between two to 12 percentage points. The results indicate that Clinton is ahead of Trump in 48 states, with two states in a statistical tie and one state voting for Trump.These variation polling measurements take into account: the national popularity; that of individual states; and then, the Electoral College vote. The forecast methods are: electoral commission; statistical surveys; political reports; expert opinions; and, betting.
Trump has resorted to accusing the media of influencing the voters to organize “rigging” the elections in favour of “Crooked Hillary”. But his running mate, Mike Pence, and most of the
Republican Party regulars, including his own manager, Kellyanne Conway, have said that they would recognize the outcome of the elections. Trump has declared that he will keep everyone in suspense and “wait and see” after November, 8th.
All these come at the backdrop of the 2005 revelations of Trump’s obscene audio about groping and forcibly kissing women; racist utterances against Muslim immigrants; cottoning on to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin; and, most recently accusing Clinton of wanting to bring a no-fly-zone policy on Syria that he says will bring about World War 111.
The poll forecasts show diminishing enthusiasm at for Trump at 52%; and negative support, at 49%. Among the major polls, only Rasmussen, Los Angeles Times, Reuters/Ipsos and the Investors’ Business Daily/ITTP show a closing up to four percentage points.
The most prominent and acclaimed pollsters indicate a Clinton win. The New York Times (NYT) poll says that Clinton has a 45.6 % against Trump’s 37.4%. The Libertarian party’s Gary Johnson at 6%, while Evan McMulin fizzles out completely. ABC News/Washington Post has Clinton 50% to Trumps 38%; CNN has 49% against 40% for Clinton; the Quinnipiac Poll indicates a 47% Clintonwin over 40% for Trump; and, the Economist shows a 42% as against 38% in favour of Clinton.
A mention of the other important ones, too: Gallup, Zogby, RealCleanPolitics, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, TimeWarner, Monmouth, Fox News, give Clinton the edge over Trump. These poll forecasts have given Clinton a national popular average vote of 49.5% point against Trump, who gets 42.9%. The balance of the 9% is Johnson’s.
By the present count of the likely Congressional electors, Clinton has a majority of 340 delegate votes as against Trumps’ 197. The other three electoral delegates go to Johnson.
Culled from News Agencies
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