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M7-Mbabazi fallout: What we’re not seeing!


M7-Mbabazi fallout: What we’re not seeing!

You can never know the true colour of a hairy bush hunter until the wind blows beneath his skin. This is what is turning out in this epic of the apparent Mbabazi-Museveni fallout.

Until recently, it had never crossed my mind that the embattled Premier John Patrick Amama Mbabazi (JPAM) was at the forefront of the struggles and efforts that saw his boss capture power in 1986, contrary to what we have often heard that Mbabazi was merely enjoying sausages, wearing sharp suits and driving expensive Mercedes Benzes during the guerilla war.


While appearing on the Capital Gang talk show, speaking matter-of-factly, and somewhat defiantly, made a startling revelation to the effect that he and another chap were the ones who revived FRONASA when it had been disbanded by Museveni, following a systematic purge by Idi Amin’s government of anti-regime elements.

So what JPAM seems to suggest is that he wieldsa proportionate ownership of the struggle and the dividends thereof. Assuming it is a company, the two men would have equal shares, 50-50.

Secondly, JPAM still insists, and his boss has also reiterated the same position, that he (JPAM) hasn’t been hounded out of his most powerful and coveted job of Secretary General. JPAM has posited all logical arguments that the decision of the NRM Caucus wasn’t binding when the members unanimously ruled to have the man from Kanungu hand over his roles and responsibilities as Secretary General of the party to the youthful minister for political mobilisation Richard Todwong.

JPAM, being Senior Council, knows a thing or two about the law. He maintains that he was elected by the NRM delegates’ conference at Namboole, and so if anybody wants to remove him from his position, they (Caucus) should call the delegates conference and vote him out. The process through which he came is the same process through which he should hand over office, he defiantly asserts.

There is another twist to the debacle, something akin to the 2005 ‘kisanja’ project. Recent media reports allege  that the NRM MPs have been ‘oiled’ with Shs 5million each as ‘facilitation’ to go back to their constituencies and sell to the people the Kyankwanzi Retreat resolutions, chief among which isthe candidacy of President Museveni, also NRM party Chairman, as the sole candidate and NRM presidential flag-bearer in the 2016 elections. In other words Museveni will not have a competitor from NRM apart from himself.

At the same time, there is an alleged plot by a group of NRM MPs headed by the usual suspect James Kakooza (Kabula County)to amend the party constitution to have the party secretary general directly appointed by the party chairman who is also the President. The same rule will apply to senior government positions such as speaker of parliament, if am not mistaken.

Now where does all this leave Uganda? Who benefits and doesn’t benefit from this shenanigan of schemes within the ruling party, that definitely, if not well-handled, will ultimately tear this country apart? On the one hand we are seeing a determined machinery set to finish off JPAM, once regarded asMuseveni’s most trusted and powerful  confidant. And on the other we are seeing a defiant JPAM who swears that he ‘isn’t finished’ yet.

Methinks there is something beyond this reported fallout that we the ordinary mortals are not seeing or don’t know about. What if it turns out that the two men are actually in  the game together?

My initial argument, and I still hold that line of thought, has been that the ruling oligarchy, in the absence of an organised and formidable Opposition to challenge the incumbency in 2016 elections, is orchestrating things to create an opponent among themselves. Museveni is a man who enjoys winning after a hard fight; explaining how he came to power and how he has retained that power. The all-time Ssabalwanyi wouldn’t enjoy an election in which he would face his ownshadow!This wouldn’t be interesting to him, not after he has previously enjoyed three episodes of bruising fighting between him and Besigye.

Besigye has called it quits; he won’t be returning to contest in an election he believes has already been rigged in favour of Ssabalwanyi. This leaves the opposition without any fierce challenge to give the son of Kaguta a run for his insatiable appetite.

Mugisha Muntu, Nandala Mafabi, Nobert Mao, Olara Otunnu, Gilbert Bukenya, Abed Bwanika, new entrant Gen Benon Biraro, etc, are all non-starters, thus leaving the ground open for Museveni to compete against himself and emerge with 90%.

Given the above scenario, Mbabazi’s rumoured fallout with his boss could just be part of a grand scheme of things for the regime to hang onto power. And to confuse the gullible Ugandans and international community, play a game  that seems real!

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mbabazi offers himself up for elections, creates a deep scar in Museveni’s support, and,days to elections, he quits the race! If Otunnu could fail to vote for himself, what shall fail Mbabazi from declaring his decision to quit the race a day to polling day?



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