Guest Writer
Egypt’s New Nile Strategy: Genuine Cooperation or Strategic Gambit?
Egypt’s Minister of Water and Irrigation Prof. Hani Sewilam, 4th from right, attended the Nile Governing Council of Ministers held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in Feb, 2025 during events to commemorate Nile Day. Pictured with colleague Ministers during the photo shoot
For decades, Egypt held fast to its “historic rights” over the Nile, anchored in colonial-era treaties granting it a lion’s share of the river’s waters. But in a surprising pivot during 2024–2025, Cairo appears to be charting a new course—one that embraces dialogue and cooperation with upstream neighbours like Ethiopia, Uganda, and South Sudan. What’s driving this change, and is it genuine?
From stonewalling to reengagement
Egypt’s past strategy was clear: defend the 1929 and 1959 agreements that allocated nearly 90% of Nile waters to Egypt and Sudan, while blocking upstream initiatives that threatened this status quo. This stance led to years of deadlock, especially over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo feared would reduce its critical water supply.
But starting in 2024, Egypt resumed participation in the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), attending ministerial meetings it had long shunned. In early 2025, Egypt’s water minister appeared at the Nile Council of Ministers meeting in Addis Ababa, signaling a willingness to work within basin-wide frameworks—though with important conditions. At that meeting (on the eve of the annual Nile Day), Egypt reiterated its commitment to the NBI’s core principles and “reaffirmed that regional stability must be founded on dialogue, cooperation, and mutual respect.” Egyptian Minister Hani Sewilam used the forum to urge consensus-based decision making, warning against unilateral moves.
What’s behind Cairo’s shift?
Is Egypt’s move a genuine embrace of regional partnership or a tactical maneuver?
The context suggests both. Economically and politically, Egypt faces pressures: growing populations, climate variability, and the reality that water security depends on cooperation, not confrontation. High-level talks with Ethiopia have restarted, focusing on coordinated management of the GERD, even as unresolved disputes linger.
Simultaneously, Egypt has deepened technical collaborations with neighbors indicating a practical turn from zero-sum water battles toward shared benefits. In Octobre 2024, Egypt’s Foreign Minister announced the creation of a fund for investment in the Nile Basin, which aims to achieve development on the basis of participation and cooperation between Egypt and other Nile Basin countries.
The timing was no coincidence – it came just one day after the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement entered into force on October 13, 2024, creating a new legal framework that Egypt had fiercely opposed.
But can trust be rebuilt?
It’s no secret that Egypt once mounted an aggressive campaign against upstream cooperation—ranging from diplomatic offensives painting itself as a victim, to covert efforts aimed at undermining the Nile Basin Initiative and discrediting the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) signed by upstream states.
Given this history, skepticism remains. Is Cairo’s newfound cooperation a sincere recalibration or a sophisticated strategy to maintain its historic water share while defusing upstream momentum?
Only time will tell. What is clear is that the Nile’s future hinges on dialogue, mutual respect, equitable access to the river’s benefits, and shared stewardship—a reality Egypt is increasingly acknowledging, whether out of choice or necessity.
As the river flows, so does the hope that a more collaborative Nile Basin is within reach. For Egypt and its neighbors, the question now is not just who gets how much water, but how to ensure the basin’s prosperity for generations to come.
Dr. Geri Tiacika is an international consultant on water policy and transboundary water management.
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