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Who would win the US elections if they were held today?
US contenders Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
The renowned United States polling company, has posted that Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, would win the US presidency if elections were held today, hardly two months to elections.
Like the whole of August, Clinton is in a comfortable lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump, both in terms of the electoral and the popular votes.
She is currently standing at 313.8 electoral votes compared to her two rivals; Trump and Gary Johnson trailing at 223.8 and 0.4, respectively. In terms of the popular vote, she has 47.5% compared to 43.1% and 8% for Trump and Johnson, respectively.
Polling by telephone interviews, for example, Clinton leads Trump by 7 points, and has therefore, an 86 percent chance of winning. Also, even if only the non-live-interview polls were to be considered, Clinton would still lead Trump by 5 points and would still enjoy a 71% chance of scooping the presidency.
A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House, and while Clinton’s strongest states are in the west, including; Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada, among others, Trump’s biggest support comes from the south, such as; South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, among others.
However, since mid-August, polls have indicated a consistent improvement in Trump’s performance in both votes (electoral and popular), a trend which political analysts have attributed to a multiplicity of factors.
Foremost, Trump, has lately softened his stance regarding the immigration policy, particularly towards Mexico, which he visited last week, soon after Mexican President, Enrique Pena Nieto, consented to the visit.
Apart from the fact that Trump did no rebuttal to Pena Nieto’s submission to the effect that the US is after all the biggest beneficiary from the Mexican migrants over the years, the gesture has been interpreted as one of the attempts to make good on Trump’s offensive campaign messages towards minority groups since the start of his bid for the presidency.
Trump moved further in the same direction when he recently pooled off a sudden visit to one Black American Church in Detroit where he emphasized unity and brotherhood.
On the other hand, Clinton is at the same time battling accusations from critics regarding her interview with the FBI which critics gleefully say has revealed what Trump refers to as a “Crooked Clinton,” as he now refers to her.
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